2020 has been an extraordinary year for the US economy. Failure to contain COVID-19 caused a record 31.4% contraction in the second quarter, followed by the largest recorded recovery of 34.4% in the third quarter. Unemployment began in 2020 at 3.5%, a historical low, but soon peaked at 14.8%, the highest level since the Great Depression. Nearly seven million people were laid off in one week, the week ending March 28th. Higher Rock Education’s 2020 predictions proved too optimistic, but we did not anticipate COVID-19. We provide our scorecard and 2021 forecasts in the summary section. More

Thank God for the vaccines! All of us are extremely grateful to all who contributed to developing a COVID-19 vaccine in record time. It will save thousands of lives and signal the beginning of an economic recovery for many. But COVID-19 still threatens the US economy. Without renewed help, many families will suffer and the impact would reverberate throughout the economy. It is true that many people have benefited. For example, the Federal Reserve reported that the net worth of the average household has grown to record levels, thanks to record highs in the stock market and appreciating home values. However, much of the gain has resulted from unsustainable government borrowing and spending. Reduced demand would eventually cripple the economy by not only slowing hiring but it would also lower profits. More

The economy is headed in the right direction. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) grew at a record clip. More people are being added to payrolls, and consumers continue to spend, all while new cases of COVID-19 increase at an exponential rate. Will the growing number of cases and deaths be enough to threaten the recovery? Review the recent economic statistics and what they mean. More

Normally a 661,000 increase in payrolls would be celebrated – but not in September. For the first time since the recovery began fewer than one million jobs have been added. It is likely an indication that the recovery is slowing. Other signs of a slowdown include: household income is less, consumer spending is lower, and most importantly COVID cases continue to climb. Review and interpret recent government data. More