Normally a 661,000 increase in payrolls would be celebrated – but not in September. For the first time since the recovery began fewer than one million jobs have been added. It is likely an indication that the recovery is slowing. Other signs of a slowdown include: household income is less, consumer spending is lower, and most importantly COVID cases continue to climb. Review and interpret recent government data. More

The US economy continues to improve as it reopens for business. Workers continue to be rehired after being furloughed. Wages and salaries paid by private companies are increasing. Households continue to spend. But the reason for the contraction remains – COVID cases have not diminished. The debate among our leaders is if additional fiscal stimulus is needed. Should the government resume paying supplemental unemployment? Should it issue another round of stimulus checks? Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, believe now is not the time to cut off struggling households. But some policy makers argue that no additional stimulus is needed. Deficits are out of control, and the government needs to resist increasing spending. What should be done? These options are discussed in the Summary and Analysis section. More

It was not a surprise when the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted 9.5% in the second quarter. Containment measures and approximately $3 trillion in aide prevented a steeper recession, but more is needed – just when most of the programs put in place have expired. What should be done? Several actions including President Trump’s recent executive orders are discussed in the Summary and Analysis section at the end of this post. More

An economic recovery depends on containing the spread of COVID-19. The US economy was headed in the right direction in June. Employment was up. Consumer spending increased. Much of the good news was driven by government actions. States reopened their economies and millions of furloughed workers were rehired. Government transfer payments earlier in the quarter helped propel April’s income to record increases, which in turn contributed to a rise in May’s consumer spending. But, for continued improvements to be sustainable, more people need to return to work and public confidence needs to be restored. More