Economics in the News – Jan. 12-18, 2026
Economics impacts our lives every day. Below are some of the top storylines from this past week related to economics.
o China reported more deaths than births in 2025 for the fourth consecutive year, reaching a low point in the birth rate since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. That means that China’s population is declining and aging, an issue many countries globally are having. Fewer future workers will be able to support retirees. An issue that is compounded by China having one of the lowest retirement ages in the world.
The Chinese Communist Party has tried several baby-boosting measures, such as offering cash and subsidized housing for couples. However, that has had little impact. Young people are discouraged by the high costs of raising a child amid a slowing economy. Unemployment among young people is also taking its toll, as college graduates are struggling to get hired. [The New York Times]
o President Donald Trump is officially one year into his term. He made many promises, but how has he done in keeping his promises regarding the US economy? Below are three – one that he’s missed, one that is showing some signs of progress, and one where he’s kept his promise, so far.
Grocery prices across the board has risen since Trump took office, meaning that he hasn’t been able to keep his promise of lowering grocery costs. While the costs of some items are down, overall food inflation has risen some since Trump returned to the White House. Trump pledged to bring down gas prices on the campaign trail and they have decreased since he took office. However, they have fallen short of the sub-$2 prices that he promised with the average cost per gallon being $2.78 in January, according to the Energy Information Administration. Trump’s best marks in the first year of his term came via the stock market, which ended 2025 with a 16 percent return. However, the markets had some ups and downs due to some of Trump’s policies. [The New York Times]
o As the baby boomer generation is entering retirement, luxury cruises have become more popular. From 2021 to 2024, the number of passengers that have cruised in luxury has surged from 310,000 to 1.1 million, according to the Cruise Lines International Association. The target market for luxury cruises is those who are looking for more private and extravagant experience. Cruise lines are also seeking to attract wealthier clients, who are high earners and those who saw their net worth surge over the last few years in the stock market. But what does $25,000 per night get you on a cruise?
For starters, many luxury cruises carry significantly fewer passengers, even fewer than 1,000 people. They are all-inclusive, with food, drinks and gratuities factored into the price. Service is personalized, with butlers assisting passengers with delivering hors d’oeurvres or arranging a private cocktail reception. [The Wall Street Journal]
o The race to succeed Fed chair Jerome Powell took a surprising turn. President Donald Trump suggested that top contender for the Fed chair Kevin Hassett could remain as the head of the National Economic Council.
That likely makes former Fed governor Kevin Warsh the favorite for the next top role at the Federal Reserve. As Trump’s relationship with Powell has soured since the President named Powell Fed chair in 2017, Trump has suggested that he wished he had chosen Warsh instead. Sitting Fed governor Christopher Waller and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder are also in the mix for the job. A decision to name Powell’s successor is expected to be made in February. [The Washington Post]
o Online prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are seeing a surge in demand. A few people have even quit their full-time careers to bet on current events, such as political elections, who Time Magazine will name person of the year, or how many migrants the US will deport next year.
Online prediction markets are the latest craze in the financial world, in the same light that those who were interested in meme stocks and NFT’s wanted to challenge the elite establishment. The mainstream media is even embracing it. CNN and CNBC have deals to incorporate Kalshi prediction markets in their coverage, while the Golden Globe awards partnered with Polymarket this year. Prediction markets say that they are different than gambling because there is no house edge like there is with gambling. Instead, traders are competing against other traders. However, skeptics believe that is self-serving logic. [NPR]
