The US economy continues to grow, but it is showing some signs of nearing the peak of its near record expansion as the pace of the economic growth slows. Recent economic data seem conflicting. Unemployment decreased to a near record low, but the number of people added to payrolls fell to 20,000 from 311,000. Inflation remains tame, but workers have seen their paychecks increase more than the inflation rate. Recent economic data are summarized below. My analysis is provided at the end of the blog. More

2018 was a very prosperous year for most people living and working in the United States. Economic growth after adjusting for inflation accelerated in 2018, rising 2.9% from 2.7% in 2017. More people were added to payrolls (2.6 million) than in any year since 2015. Unemployment dropped to some of the lowest rates in 50 years. Wages increased more than inflation, meaning workers were better off. All of this despite being late into a business cycle, slowing global economies, a partial government shutdown, and difficult trade negotiations with China. What contributed to this remarkable prosperity? Will it continue into 2019? More

In 2018, economic growth surged in the US, unemployment fell to near record lows, without a significant jump in inflation. I confess to being surprised that inflation did not increase more. Normally when growth stretches beyond its full-employment output the economy becomes overheated and inflation follows. More

The US economy wishes you Happy Holidays! Consumers are optimistic about the future – which should help the economy maintain its health into 2019. It is likely that the US economy will exceed President Trump's goal of 3% growth in 2018. Unemployment is 3.7%. Worker compensation has increased more than the inflation rate, which means that most families are more prosperous than at the beginning of 2018. More